EUROPE’S CHOICE IS WHETHER THIS IS TO BE PLANNED AND LEGAL, OR ILLEGAL AND DISORDERLY.

It is not immigration, but the political exploitation of immigration, that threatens border free movement within the EU.

Closing down legal migration routes has led to the opening up of illegal routes.

In 2010, 130,000 first time visas were issued to citizens of African countries by EU countries. By 2016, only a mere 30,000 visas were issued.

So denial of a legal immigration route is one contributor to illegal immigration.

African agriculture suffers disproportionately from climate change, but the human contribution to climate change comes disproportionately from the Northern Hemisphere, including from Europe.

Public opinion in some European countries is getting into a panic about immigration from outside Europe, yet these very countries are often the ones that have the least immigration.

A survey of public opinion, in 2016, found that the most negative opinions about immigration were to be found in Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia and Romania (all countries with little enough non EU immigration).

The most welcoming attitude to immigration, at that time, was to be found in Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands (who all already have substantial numbers of non EU immigrants).

European countries have a legal obligation to provide a refuge for people who are fleeing in fear of their lives from wars. Europe has provided some shelter for refugees, but Turkey has 3 million refugees in its borders, Lebanon 1 million, and Uganda 1 million. No EU country is shouldering that sort of burden.

Europeans need to look at immigration in a different way.

Because we have decided, over the past  40 or more years, to have fewer children, Europeans will need immigration in future to maintain a proper balance between numbers at work, and numbers in retirement, unless those in retirement are to live a desolate old age thirty years from now.

In a few years time, people of working age will be in short supply.

Globally, the ratio of working age to retired, will fall from 8 to 1 today, to 4 to 1 by 2050. By 2050, the global population aged 65 or over will increase from 600 million to 2.1 billion.

This will create a huge funding crisis for governments, who will not be collecting enough tax from the diminished number of people of working and taxpaying age, to meet the promises it has made, of pensions and health care, to the increasing number who have already retired and no longer earners and taxpayers.

Opposition is principle to the arrival of young immigrants from Africa is short sighted.

This is because the working age population of most EU countries is set to decline, while its post retirement population is set to increase rapidly. Without immigration of people of working age, Europe’s diminished working age population, will imply relatively poorer health care and pensions for its ever growing retired population.

Africa has an abundant supply of what will soon be one of the world’s scarcest resources, young people.

Europe has a birth rate of 1.63 children per family. Iran and China have similarly low birth rates and the US rate is only slightly higher.

In contrast, the birth rate in Nigeria is 5.42, in Mali 5.92 and Niger 7.15.

Nigeria’s population has risen from 45 million, when it became independent in 1960, to 187 million today. By 2050 Nigeria’s population could reach 410 million. The present Nigerian economy is just not capable of finding employment for all these people.

The EU needs to work on a policy that encourages orderly and well prepared immigration from Africa, accompanied by well considered plans to integrate the immigrants into European society.

As much as possible of the preparation for European living should be done before would be emigrants leave their home countries. If Europe opens up legal routes for immigration, illegal routes will become less attractive.

Europe must develop an investment partnership with Africa.

As the European Council said last week;

“  We need to take the extent and the equality of our cooperation with Africa to a new level. This will not only require increased development funding but also steps towards creating a new framework enabling a substantial increase of private investment from both Africans and Europeans. Particular focus should be laid on education, health, infrastructure, innovation, good governance and women’s empowerment.”

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